Recent developments along Bangladesh's southeastern border have taken a highly sensitive turn in the context of international security and geopolitics. The visible presence of the powerful Myanmar non-state armed group, the Arakan Army (AA), on the Teknaf border and the continuous activities of the KNF (Kuki-Chin National Front) along the Bandarban border have placed border security at extreme risk. At the same time, a series of diplomatic communications (Note Verbales) sent by the Myanmar junta government and the direct or indirect silence from Dhaka have sparked new discussions in regional politics.

Equations of the Three-Way Border Conflict The Arakan Army's armed maneuvers on the Teknaf border are primarily centered around the Rohingya camp-based armed organization, 'ARSA' (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army). The Arakan Army aims to eradicate ARSA's bases and influence along the Naaf River and adjacent border areas. Conversely, this has generated severe risks for the stability of the Rohingya camps and local security. If a direct or indirect confrontation occurs on the border among the Arakan Army, ARSA, and Bangladeshi border guards, it could turn into a three-way military showdown.

On the other hand, the presence of the Kuki-Chin Army (KNF) in the Chittagong Hill Tracts' Bandarban district has complicated border management alongside internal security. The simultaneous activities of multiple non-state terrorist or armed groups in this region have posed a major challenge to the overall geo-physical security of the entire southeastern zone.

Myanmar's Diplomatic Communications and Dhaka's Stance Recently, the Myanmar government informed Dhaka of several serious issues through Note Verbales. First, it warned that if the border situation deteriorates and Dhaka fails to control it in time, the responsibility will fall upon Bangladesh. Second, Myanmar expressed strong objections regarding the diplomatic and intelligence activities as well as frequent meetings of officials from several Western countries in areas adjacent to the border.

The most sensitive allegation involves the activities or presence of camps belonging to a Pakistani intelligence agency in the border region. According to Myanmar's claim, if these infrastructures or activities are not wrapped up by August 17, they will take strict action.

Against this entire backdrop, the silence or lack of an official reaction from Bangladesh's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and policymakers is concerning security and political analysts. Even high-level officials responsible for national security—such as Foreign Affairs Adviser Dr. Khalilur Rahman—avoided the matter by stating they had no detailed comments or information on these issues, deepening the diplomatic mystery. Possible Reasons and Consequences of Diplomatic Silence

1. Strategic Restraint: Maintaining the status quo without provoking either side in Myanmar's internal civil war—whether the junta forces or the opposition Arakan Army. 2. Information Verification: Refraining from official comments without confirming the authenticity and motives behind the sensitive allegations made by the Myanmar junta government (such as Pakistani intelligence agencies or Western interference).

3. Multilateral Balancing: Maintaining a balance among China, India, the Western world, as well as Myanmar's junta and opposition camps.

However, if this strategic silence is prolonged, Bangladesh's image in the international arena and its border security policy may appear weak. If Myanmar's ultimatum and potential military actions cross the border, it will directly threaten Bangladesh's sovereignty.

To protect Bangladesh's sovereignty and national security, strict visible surveillance along the border must be increased immediately. Alongside enhancing domestic capacity to eliminate armed groups like ARSA or KNF, a clear and objective reply to the Myanmar government's Note Verbale is required at the diplomatic table. This is because while silence can be a strategy, failing to break it at the right time could deepen the crisis.

Author: Dr. Abul Hasnat Milton, Journalist, Political Analyst, and Editor-in-Chief, The Source News Bangla